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Abstract The wild to domestic bird interface is an important nexus for emergence and transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. Although the recent incursion of HPAI H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b into North America calls for emergency response and planning given the unprecedented scale, readily available data-driven models are lacking. Here, we provide high resolution spatial and temporal transmission risk models for the contiguous United States. Considering virus host ecology, we included weekly species-level wild waterfowl (Anatidae) abundance and endemic low pathogenic avian influenza virus prevalence metrics in combination with number of poultry farms per commodity type and relative biosecurity risks at two spatial scales: 3 km and county-level. Spillover risk varied across the annual cycle of waterfowl migration and some locations exhibited persistent risk throughout the year given higher poultry production. Validation using wild bird introduction events identified by phylogenetic analysis from 2022 to 2023 HPAI poultry outbreaks indicate strong model performance. The modular nature of our approach lends itself to building upon updated datasets under evolving conditions, testing hypothetical scenarios, or customizing results with proprietary data. This research demonstrates an adaptive approach for developing models to inform preparedness and response as novel outbreaks occur, viruses evolve, and additional data become available. 

Abstract The extent to which interspecific competition structures species interactions and coexistence within communities, and the relevant mechanisms, are still debated. We focus on New World wood warblers (Parulidae), beginning with Robert MacArthur’s iconic 1958 paper in which he shows how subtle foraging behaviors, purportedly linked to dietary differences, within spruce trees contribute to the coexistence of 5 spruce-woods warbler species. MacArthur coined the phrase “resource partitioning”, and profoundly impacted the field of Ecology for subsequent decades in diverse ways. To understand what MacArthur got right and what he missed, we reviewed both ecological and evolutionary approaches to questions of the origin and coexistence of competing species in the context of diet. We argue that an important, underappreciated, mechanism of competition among coexisting migratory warbler species, particularly in winter, is diffuse exploitation competition, based in part on our own studies of warbler diets in relation to foraging behavior, substrate use, bird morphology, and other traits. Our review and synthesis of interspecific competition and coexistence in warblers have important consequences, including our questioning of the importance and effectiveness of resource partitioning in birds. We also suggest a novel hypothesis for the success of warblers today in the Caribbean and other habitats, beginning with their relatively recent adaptive radiation and the ecological opportunity on Caribbean islands. 

Abstract Influenza A viruses in wild birds pose threats to the poultry industry, wild birds, and human health under certain conditions. Of particular importance are wild waterfowl, which are the primary reservoir of low‐pathogenicity influenza viruses that ultimately cause high‐pathogenicity outbreaks in poultry farms. Despite much work on the drivers of influenza A virus prevalence, the underlying viral subtype dynamics are still mostly unexplored. Nevertheless, understanding these dynamics, particularly for the agriculturally significant H5 and H7 subtypes, is important for mitigating the risk of outbreaks in domestic poultry farms. Here, using an expansive surveillance database, we take a large‐scale look at the spatial, temporal, and taxonomic drivers in the prevalence of these two subtypes among influenza A‐positive wild waterfowl. We document spatiotemporal trends that are consistent with past work, particularly an uptick in H5 viruses in late autumn and H7 viruses in spring. Interestingly, despite large species differences in temporal trends in overall influenza A virus prevalence, we document only modest differences in the relative abundance of these two subtypes and little, if any, temporal differences among species. As such, it appears that differences in species' phenology, physiology, and behaviors that influence overall susceptibility to influenza A viruses play a much lesser role in relative susceptibility to different subtypes. Instead, species are likely to freely pass viruses among each other regardless of subtype. Importantly, despite the similarities among species documented here, individual species still may play important roles in moving viruses across large geographic areas or sustaining local outbreaks through their different migratory behaviors. 

Although both interspecific competition and coexistence mechanisms are central to ecological and evolutionary theory, past empirical studies have generally focused on simple (two‐species) communities over short time periods. Experimental tests of these species interactions are challenging in complex study systems. Moreover, several studies of ‘imperfect generalists’, consistent with Liem's Paradox, raise questions about the ability of evolved species differences to partition niche space effectively when resources vary considerably across the annual cycle. Here we used a recently developed theoretical framework to combine past research on population‐level processes with observational data on resource use to test for ongoing interspecific competition and understand the nature of resource overlap. We compared species diet overlaps and differences in several distinctive communities centred on a focal species, the American RedstartSetophaga ruticillareplicated both spatially and seasonally, in combination with documentation of population regulation to assess the ability of similar species to partition dietary niche space and limit interspecific competition. Our results document high dietary overlap in most of the communities studied, with only subtle differentiation consistent with known species differences in foraging behaviour and morphology. These findings are largely consistent with species foraging as imperfect generalists. However, in contrast to past studies, the high diet overlaps observed here during times of inferred resource scarcity were driven by low‐value prey taxa (e.g. small ants) and did not involve truly ‘private’ resources. All of these factors increase the potential negative impacts of interspecific competition, and limit the ability of these birds to avoid competition if food availability deteriorates further than observed in our study, either seasonally or at longer intervals.